Authors: V.Z. Manusov, D.V. Antonenkov, E.Yu. Pudov, E.G. Kuzin

Title of the article: Preventive management of electric consumption of a mining enterprise based on vector forecasting by the method of singular spectrum analysis

Year: 2021, Issue: 5, Pages: 63-70

Branch of knowledge: 09.05.03 Electrotechnical complexes and systems

Index UDK: 621.311, 004.23

DOI: 10.26730/1816-4528-2021-5-63-70

Abstract: This paper presents research on the forecasting of electricity consumption by mining enterprises, taking into account the main provisions of the strategy for the development of the electric power industry of the Russian Federation until 2035. The strategy for the development of the electric power industry of the Russian Federation in the new edition defines a change in the structure of electricity consumption, improving the quality of services provided in the wholesale electricity market, energy conservation, modernization of equipment, devices and structures, involves the introduction of modern technological solutions to improve energy efficiency. One of the directions is the monitoring and forecasting of power consumption data of objects of various levels, which requires a qualitative analysis of the output data, processing and their further application. Practice shows that there is no universal method of processing the received data. Currently existing methods have many disadvantages, such as the inability to take into account the specifics of the power consumption of the enterprise, low accuracy, the need to use large computing power, etc. A feature of energy consumption at mining enterprises is the large unit capacity of electric receivers, which requires adaptation of methods. The mathematical apparatus for analyzing time series data Singular Spectrum Analysis has a large number of advantages with minor disadvantages. The use of the Singular Spectrum Analysis method in the tasks of short-term forecasting of power consumption of mining enterprises fully satisfies the direction of the energy strategy of the Russian Federation. In addition, for such enterprises, the accuracy of the short-term forecast and the adaptability of the mathematical forecast model to changing trends in electricity consumption is extremely relevant in solving everyday tasks of predictive energy management of the enterprise. However, there are no works on this topic, which indicates the need for research in this area. The development and implementation of new forecasting methods in automated energy management systems of a mining enterprise will make it possible to predict the appearance of problematic energy consumption points with a high probability and successfully manage the load schedule.

Key words: electric power industry development strategy mining enterprise energy consumption management Singular Spectrum Analysis automated control systems short-term forecasting command system structure

Receiving date: 30.09.2021

Approval date: 26.10.2021

Publication date: 19.11.2021

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